At McGee's the other morning, there was some mention of 10km races and times. That got me thinking about this.....
Something that all runners want/like/try to do is predict how they will run in an upcoming race. (I'm thinking about marathons right now.) By predicting the expected performance, they can plan accordingly when creating their race plan.
Race plan: nutritional intake, fluid (could be nutritional) intake, pace, heart rates, other intensity values - RPE!!, even where and when family members should position themselves to get the "RUN - MOMMY - RUN" signs out.
It can also help in setting appropriate training intensities and program layouts (see:
Jack Daniels' Running Formula
).
Reading through chapter 2 (oxygen transport and running economy) in
"Lore of Running"
, Noakes evaluates several predictive charts/equations. He also says,
"But the best predictor of performance at any longer distance, even up to 90km, was the 10-km running time (Noakes, Myburgh, et al. 1990a)."
This assumes that the training is appropriate for the distance that your goal race covers. For example, if you train for a 10km race and run a good 10km time, you shouldn't expect to run a good marathon. Even though the chart may say so. Why? Because your training was geared towards the 10km.
This seems pretty obvious, so I wanted to give two examples from my own marathon history. In 1999, I ran a 10mile and 10km race prior to the marathon I was training for. It was the first 10k I had ever run and the first 10 mile race I have ever done. And the first marathon I had completed.
I thought I was training appropriately. (I was training by myself and didn't know too many other runners to share secrets with!) One long run, one medium run ..... basic advice taken from a Runners' World magazine.
Here's a photo of my data:

So what does it say. I underperformed.... Big Time! at my first marathon. Surprise. No. The first race always teaches us a lot. Did I get better at my next marathon? No. I ran Chicago later that year even slower... (4:01). Underperformed again, according to the predictive tables.
In 2001, I changed my approach to training (thanks to Jan Callahan at UNL)... improvement. 3:27:58. I do not have a 10k time close to the 2001 marathon to see if it was predictive though.
In 2003, I changed some more things. Primarily, I ran my long runs slower. My long runs were approximately 1 minute slower than my marathon pace (even slower if completed at
Todd's Road). And I cut out my track work and added in more "steady" runs. (Steady = just below to just above threshold). Volume also went up using the "long weekend" approach instead of a 1 long run per week approach (again: thanks to Jan).
You can see the data for this period too. In this case, I only have 10km times after the marathon. Bolder Boulder and Bluegrass 10k, so it is harder to say they were "predictive".
But they do show that I was getting closer to performing in a marathon at POTENTIAL. But still... underperforming a little. I always felt that low 2:50's were about the limit of my God Given Talent.
I have set up the 10km and 10mile race this spring to test my training and fitness before the marathon. Hoping that I'm on track to reach my dream goal. (And likely the genetically limiting goal). It will also be good to have a better comparison to the 1999 spring season.
At this point it is pretty hard to compare apples to apples. I had just started running then, now.... even when I'm just starting a training program like a few weeks ago -- I assume that there is some residual fitness that I've maintained?
Maybe I can collect some data from some other runners and see how the predictive tables work for other individuals and as a group. And then see what their interpretations are in regards to overperforming / underperforming and what possible impacts their training program had.
It seems that many endurance athletes view overperformances / underperformances in relation to the acute circumstances. For instance, hot and humid weather, too cold or didn't eat properly. I do it with most races too. (re: just ask me about my Buffalo Lake Springs Triathlon experience. I've got lots of reasons for my poor performance. Including the hitchhiker I picked up in Oklahoma... it has to be his fault!) So, it is good to hear about how training programs could have changed for the better from other endurance athletes.
I'm a running GEEK! (I've already been told by non-running friends that my blog doesn't not make sense.)